THE LONG GAME
2016 — 2025
THE NUMBER BEHIND THE NOISE

9 in 10
couldn’t beat the index.

That’s active U.S. large-cap funds over twenty years. Before backing a market guru, see how their record stacks up against the S&P 500.

SPIVA U.S. · Year-End 2025 · All periods end Dec 31, 2025 ↗
EVERY ARENA HAS ITS STANDARD

The one to beat.

No star manager. No bold forecasts.
Just the S&P 500, represented here
by the SPY ETF.

What is SPX?
LEGENDARY
SPX500THE MARKET
S&P 500BENCHMARK · SPY ETF TOTAL RETURN
+14.7%10Y ANNUALIZED RETURN
5Y / YEAR+14.3%1Y SEASON+17.7%
A legendary benchmark. A common opponent.
TEN YEARS. ONE STARTING LINE.
$10,000 INVESTED AT THE START OF 2016$39,468at the end of 2025, dividends reinvested.

Every contender faces the same dates
and the same benchmark. The card frame
reflects 10-year outperformance.

SPX = INDEX · SPY = ETF
THE CONTENDERS

Great names. Earned ranks.

34 INVESTOR PROFILES
20 RANKED · 14 UNRANKED

The faces you know. The records behind them. Explore 34 investors, with 20 ten-year records in the ranking.

COMMONWarren Buffett — Licensed original color photographWarren BuffettBERKSHIRE · MARKET VALUE+14.3%10Y ANNUALIZED−0.38VS SPYMAX DRAWDOWN−30.4%1Y SEASON Common+10.9%−6.82 ppRANK 06 / 20RARECathie Wood — Licensed original color photograph, cropped and AI enhancedCathie WoodARKK · NAV+15.0%10Y ANNUALIZED+0.31VS SPYMAX DRAWDOWN−80.9%1Y SEASON Legendary+35.6%+17.86 ppRANK 05 / 20EPICBill Ackman — Licensed original color photograph, cropped and AI enhancedBill AckmanPSH · NAV+15.8%10Y ANNUALIZED+1.08VS SPYMAX DRAWDOWN−26.5%1Y SEASON Rare+20.9%+3.18 ppRANK 03 / 20UNRANKEDPhoto unavailableMichael BurryScionThe Big ShortSTRATEGYLong / shortRECORDRecord to verifyVIEW PROFILE UNRANKEDRay Dalio — Licensed original color photographRay DalioBridgewaterPrinciples. Global macro.STRATEGYGlobal macroRECORDRecord to verifyVIEW PROFILE UNRANKEDJim Cramer — Licensed original color photographJim CramerCNBC · Charitable TrustThe face of Mad MoneySTRATEGYPublic equitiesRECORDRecord to verifyVIEW PROFILE COMMONPhoto unavailableDan LoebTHIRD POINT OFFSHORE · NET+7.5%10Y ANNUALIZED−7.17VS SPYMAX DRAWDOWN—1Y SEASON Common+8.9%−8.82 ppRANK 17 / 20COMMONMohnish Pabrai — Licensed original color photograph, cropped and AI enhancedMohnish PabraiPABRAI FUND 3 · NET+11.4%10Y ANNUALIZED−3.29VS SPYMAX DRAWDOWN—1Y SEASON Common−20.0%−37.72 ppRANK 10 / 20COMMONPhoto unavailableTerry SmithFUNDSMITH T ACC · USD+10.8%10Y ANNUALIZED−3.87VS SPYMAX DRAWDOWN−32.8%1Y SEASON Common+8.2%−9.56 ppRANK 12 / 20COMMONPhoto unavailableMario GabelliGABAX · CLASS AAA NAV+9.6%10Y ANNUALIZED−5.14VS SPYMAX DRAWDOWN−36.6%1Y SEASON Common+16.7%−0.98 ppRANK 13 / 20EPICPhoto unavailableWill DanoffFCNTX · FUND NAV+16.8%10Y ANNUALIZED+2.11VS SPYMAX DRAWDOWN−32.6%1Y SEASON Unrated+21.8%+4.04 ppRANK 02 / 20COMMONCliff Asness — Licensed original color photograph, cropped and AI enhancedCliff AsnessQLEIX · CO-MANAGED NAV+12.3%10Y ANNUALIZED−2.44VS SPYMAX DRAWDOWN−39.2%1Y SEASON Legendary+34.4%+16.71 ppRANK 08 / 20COMMONPhoto unavailableBruce BerkowitzFAIRX · FUND NAV+8.9%10Y ANNUALIZED−5.81VS SPYMAX DRAWDOWN−41.5%1Y SEASON Legendary+29.5%+11.77 ppRANK 16 / 20EPICPrem Watsa — Licensed original color photograph, cropped and AI enhancedPrem WatsaFAIRFAX · SHAREHOLDERS USD+17.2%10Y ANNUALIZED+2.50VS SPYMAX DRAWDOWN−59.3%1Y SEASON Legendary+38.5%+20.83 ppRANK 01 / 20COMMONPhoto unavailableTom GaynerMKL · SHAREHOLDER RETURN+9.3%10Y ANNUALIZED−5.42VS SPYMAX DRAWDOWN−44.7%1Y SEASON Epic+24.5%+6.81 ppRANK 15 / 20COMMONPhoto unavailableJohn HussmanHSGFX · FUND NAV−2.2%10Y ANNUALIZED−16.94VS SPYMAX DRAWDOWN−30.9%1Y SEASON Common+6.2%−11.48 ppRANK 19 / 20COMMONPhoto unavailableBill NygrenOAKMX · CO-MANAGED NAV+13.7%10Y ANNUALIZED−1.00VS SPYMAX DRAWDOWN−41.4%1Y SEASON Common+14.1%−3.59 ppRANK 07 / 20COMMONPhoto unavailableChris DavisNYVTX · CLASS A NAV+12.1%10Y ANNUALIZED−2.63VS SPYMAX DRAWDOWN−37.0%1Y SEASON Epic+26.8%+9.11 ppRANK 09 / 20COMMONJohn Rogers Jr. — Licensed original color photograph, cropped and AI enhancedJohn Rogers Jr.ARGFX · INVESTOR NAV+9.5%10Y ANNUALIZED−5.20VS SPYMAX DRAWDOWN−45.3%1Y SEASON Common+14.1%−3.64 ppRANK 14 / 20COMMONPhoto unavailableDavid HerroOAKIX · CO-MANAGED NAV+6.8%10Y ANNUALIZED−7.93VS SPYMAX DRAWDOWN−53.1%1Y SEASON Legendary+32.4%+14.68 ppRANK 18 / 20UNRANKEDPeter Lynch — Licensed original color photograph, cropped and AI enhancedPeter LynchFidelity · Magellan eraInvest in what you knowSTRATEGYStock pickingRECORDHistorical profileVIEW PROFILE UNRANKEDCharlie Munger — Licensed original color photograph, cropped and AI enhancedCharlie MungerBerkshire · historical profileBuffett’s longtime partnerSTRATEGYValue investingRECORDHistorical profileVIEW PROFILE UNRANKEDGeorge Soros — Licensed original color photographGeorge SorosQuantum · historical profileThe Quantum Fund nameSTRATEGYGlobal macroRECORDHistorical profileVIEW PROFILE UNRANKEDKevin O’Leary — Licensed original color photographKevin O’LearyO’Shares · associated ETFShark Tank’s Mr. WonderfulSTRATEGYRules-based ETFRECORDFund review pendingVIEW PROFILE UNRANKEDKen Griffin — Licensed original color photograph, cropped and AI enhancedKen GriffinCitadelThe name behind CitadelSTRATEGYMulti-strategyRECORDRecord to verifyVIEW PROFILE UNRANKEDStanley Druckenmiller — Licensed original color photograph, cropped and AI enhancedStanley DruckenmillerDuquesneThe macro investor’s investorSTRATEGYGlobal macroRECORDHistorical profileVIEW PROFILE UNRANKEDJim Simons — Licensed original color photograph, cropped and AI enhancedJim SimonsRenaissance · historical profileThe quantitative pioneerSTRATEGYQuantitativeRECORDHistorical profileVIEW PROFILE UNRANKEDHoward Marks — Licensed original color photograph, cropped and AI enhancedHoward MarksOaktreeThe memos investors readSTRATEGYCredit / valueRECORDRecord to verifyVIEW PROFILE UNRANKEDPaul Tudor Jones — Licensed original color photographPaul Tudor JonesTudorA Wall Street trading nameSTRATEGYGlobal macroRECORDRecord to verifyVIEW PROFILE UNRANKEDPhoto unavailableDavid EinhornGreenlight CapitalHigh-profile short battlesSTRATEGYLong / shortRECORDRecord to verifyVIEW PROFILE UNRANKEDPhoto unavailableRon BaronBaron Partners FundTesla. SpaceX. Conviction.STRATEGYGrowth investingRECORDFund review pendingVIEW PROFILE RAREPhoto unavailableJoel GreenblattGINDX · CO-MANAGED+15.4%10Y ANNUALIZED+0.67VS SPYMAX DRAWDOWN−33.7%1Y SEASON Epic+22.3%+4.57 ppRANK 04 / 20COMMONPeter Schiff — Licensed original color photographPeter SchiffEPIVX · AFFILIATED FUND+11.4%10Y ANNUALIZED−3.36VS SPYMAX DRAWDOWN−32.2%1Y SEASON Legendary+47.2%+29.43 ppRANK 11 / 20COMMONPhoto unavailableCarl IcahnICAHN FUNDS · COMPOSITE−6.7%10Y ANNUALIZED−21.44VS SPYMAX DRAWDOWN—1Y SEASON Common+0.4%−17.32 ppRANK 20 / 20
Select a card to explore its record or profile.10Y frame ◆ 10Y drawdown ◆ 1Y season
THE BATTLE RECORD

Let the numbers settle it.

Growth of $10,0002016–2025 · Annual observations
SPY ETFPSH · NAV
2016–2025 · SPY $39,468 · PSH $43,348
Consistency, risk & the full record

5 of six rolling five-year windows ahead of SPY. Annualized gaps, with windows ending each December:

2016–2020+2.19 pp/yr2017–2021+8.28 pp/yr2018–2022+16.02 pp/yr2019–2023+16.00 pp/yr2020–2024+7.97 pp/yr2021–2025−0.01 pp/yr

These windows overlap; they are not independent tests of skill. Figures are approximate. The frame always uses the full ten-year result.

Drawdown data. The investor profile shows daily maximum drawdown where a matching adjusted history is available. Otherwise, it labels the year-end estimate explicitly; annual observations miss losses within a year.

PSH NAV returns include leverage and the effects of its structure and buybacks. They differ from the returns of its traded shares. The five-year rarity is Unrated because rounded source data cannot establish which side of zero the gap falls on.

Data basis. Compounded from published calendar-year returns. Figures are approximate because the source observations are rounded.

Published performance record ↗

Calendar-year returns · USD
YearPSH · NAVSPY ETF
2016−13.50%+12.00%
2017−4.00%+21.70%
2018−0.70%−4.57%
2019+58.10%+31.22%
2020+70.20%+18.33%
2021+26.90%+28.73%
2022−8.80%−18.17%
2023+26.70%+26.18%
2024+10.20%+24.89%
2025+20.90%+17.72%
THE LONG GAME · TOP FIVE

The arena, ranked.

10-YEAR ANNUALIZED RETURN
JAN 2016 – DEC 2025

One decade. The same benchmark. See who finished ahead.

—
SPX · S&P 500SPY ETF · THE BENCHMARK
+14.7%BENCHMARK
01Prem Watsa — Licensed original color photograph, cropped and AI enhanced
Prem WatsaFairfax · shareholders USD
+17.2%+2.50 pp vs SPX
02Photo unavailable
Will DanoffFCNTX · fund NAV
+16.8%+2.11 pp vs SPX
03Bill Ackman — Licensed original color photograph, cropped and AI enhanced
Bill AckmanPSH · NAV
+15.8%+1.08 pp vs SPX
04Photo unavailable
Joel GreenblattGINDX · co-managed
+15.4%+0.67 pp vs SPX
05Cathie Wood — Licensed original color photograph, cropped and AI enhanced
Cathie WoodARKK · NAV
+15.0%+0.31 pp vs SPX

The gold line shows SPX, measured using SPY total returns.
Top five of 20 ranked vehicles. Figures are approximate.

View full leaderboard
THE RULEBOOK

A fair fight. An open record.

01

A decade earns the frame.

The main rank uses 10-year annualized return minus SPY. Cards also show 10-year maximum drawdown and a one-year season badge.

02

The same starting line.

Matched dates. Reinvested distributions. Fund returns after expenses. Every card names the vehicle actually being measured.

03

Rarity follows the record.

Ten verified years qualify for the main arena. Shorter records belong in a separate division. Missing or uncertain data stays Unrated.

10Y RARITY
ANNUALIZED GAP VS SPY
Legendary≥3 pp / yearEpic1 to <3 pp / yearRare0 to <1 pp / yearCommonBelow 0 pp / year
Full grading rules and benchmark designation

These are SPX Arena’s proposed performance tiers, not statistical proof of skill or risk-adjusted grades. The 5Y badge uses the same annualized thresholds. The 1Y season uses Legendary ≥10 pp, Epic ≥4 and <10 pp, Rare ≥0 and <4 pp, and Common <0 pp. A full 10-year record is required for the main rank; 5–9 years qualify only for a separate five-year division.

The S&P 500 card’s Legendary status is a special benchmark designation. It is not an investor rating and has no leaderboard rank. SPX identifies the index; the return figures and comparisons use SPY ETF market-price total returns. SPIVA’s statistics compare active funds with the index itself.

Return-ranking periods end December 31, 2025. Ten years starts December 31, 2015; five years starts December 31, 2020; one year starts December 31, 2024. Full-career results are separate from the main rank. Rounded source data can leave a badge Unrated when it falls too close to a threshold, as with PSH’s five-year result.

Card maximum drawdown is an estimate over the latest ten years available, with observation frequency shown on each card and exact dates in its tooltip and profile disclosure. Daily closes are used where available; PSH uses published weekly NAV returns. The ≈ symbol means approximate. Weekly observations can miss deeper losses between reports. ARKK uses a labeled market-price proxy for its NAV record. Sources and exact windows are linked on investor profiles. Unavailable means a continuous history for the named vehicle has not been established. Profile year-end comparisons retain the selected period through 2025. Drawdown does not affect rank or rarity.

Sources & comparison notes · as of Dec 31, 2025

The arena features 34 investor profiles. Twenty selected vehicles are ranked by 10-year annualized outperformance versus SPY, the S&P 500 ETF. This is a dated research snapshot, not a live ranking of all investors. Figures are estimates from published annual returns or adjusted year-end NAVs and share prices. The record details identify the method and sources. Fundsmith and Fairfax are converted to USD. This is a return ranking, not a risk-adjusted assessment; the vehicles have different mandates and exposures. Charts use annual observations only. SPY is market-price total return; ARKK, GINDX, EPIVX and PSH are NAV returns after fund expenses. Berkshire is per-share market value. NAV and shareholder returns are different measures; these labels stay visible.

The homepage’s SPIVA figures cover all active U.S. large-cap funds, including growth, core and value styles. Over the twenty years from 2006–2025, 92.89% underperformed the S&P 500. The one-year and ten-year figures use the same category and end date. Fund returns are after fees, excluding sales loads. SPIVA includes funds that merged or liquidated during the period when calculating the share that failed to survive and outperform. These figures describe historical fund results, not the percentage of individual investors who will fail. See SPIVA Year-End 2025, Report 1a, page 12; methodology is in Appendix B, pages 41–42.

Annual data: ARK prospectus, 2016–2024 · ARK, 2025 · Berkshire · Gotham · Pershing Square · SPY annual returns · Fidelity: SPY 1Y / 5Y / 10Y cross-check · SPIVA.

GINDX is co-managed by Joel Greenblatt and Robert Goldstein. Berkshire is a conglomerate. PSH NAV includes the effects of its structure and buybacks; it is not its listed-share return. EPIVX is EuroPac International Value Class A at NAV, excluding its initial sales charge (up to 4.5%); including that charge reduces its published 10Y return to 10.84%. Peter Schiff is associated with the adviser and investment philosophy; James Nelson and Luke Allen manage the fund. It invests internationally, so SPY is an opportunity-cost comparison, not its mandate benchmark. Icahn’s figures are the published investment-fund composite, net of expenses, not IEP shareholder returns or his personal return. Annual observations cannot measure intra-year maximum drawdown. No risk score is fabricated. Historical performance does not establish future returns.

New annual records: EuroPac 2026 prospectus, Class A calendar-year chart · EuroPac December 2025 factsheet · Icahn annual reports: 2018 (2016–18), 2019, 2022 (2020–22), 2025 (2023–25).

Added records & portrait sources

The fourteen newly ranked records use the full 2016–2025 period. Adjusted-NAV estimates can differ slightly from published fund returns. Pabrai Fund 3’s conflicting headline ten-year figure is disclosed in its profile. Each record links to its data sources.

Prem Watsa · Will Danoff · Bill Ackman · Joel Greenblatt · Cathie Wood · Warren Buffett · Bill Nygren · Cliff Asness · Chris Davis · Mohnish Pabrai · Peter Schiff · Terry Smith · Mario Gabelli · John Rogers Jr. · Tom Gayner · Bruce Berkowitz · Dan Loeb · David Herro · John Hussman · Carl Icahn ·

Fourteen other profiles remain unranked while comparable records are reviewed. Fame does not establish performance.

Image credits, licenses & independence notice. Profile pictures use licensed original color photographs. Low-resolution photos may be AI upscaled; credits identify the source license and changes. Uncleared photos are withheld.